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Analysis of Global On-Time Container Delivery
- Evaluating ocean carriers using container delivery performance
- Easily comparing an ocean carrier's service level with global industry performance
Only 47% of containers booked in the past year were delivered in a timely manner
38% of all late deliveries are not directly related to vessel schedules
(Source: OceanMetrics)Overview of OceanMetrics
OceanMetrics has the ability to match a carrier's original booking confirmation against the status indication that the container is ready for pick-up by the shipper. This information allows an accurate measurement of the on-time reliability of container deliveries. As the measurement is tied directly to the actual delivery of the container itself, it automatically includes any delays incurred irrespective of vessel schedules and routing. This makes the OceanMetrics measurement unique.
The total number of TEU moved globally is subject to quite some uncertainty; however OceanMetrics' data is based on transactions processed via the INTTRA network, which captures 20-30% of all containers moved globally. Using the OceanMetrics database to analyze global on-time container delivery therefore provides a solid view of the status of the industry.Container On-Time Delivery Methodology
Every single container delivery is matched against the corresponding booking confirmation, when both of these are available in INTTRA’s OceanMetrics platform. This data is combined into a weekly measurement of on-time delivery reliability.
Additionally, in order to eliminate statistical fluctuations in the data, the data is always calculated as an average over the past 13 weeks. OceanMetrics provides this data for the past 52 weeks, wherein each week's total data then contain the arrival of approximately 3 million TEU.The Results
The first result is a simple calculation of the global on-time delivery development.
Figure 1 illustrates this development, and it is seen that the global average over the past year has been 47% on-time delivery of containers, albeit with some significant fluctuations over the year. A high-point is reached towards the end of 2010 with 52% of all containers being delivered on time. Then there is a decline to a low point in week 10 in 2011 where only 44% of all containers were delivered on time. The latest data indicates that in the past 13 weeks, 50% of all containers were delivered on time.
A key question is to which extent these fluctuations could be caused by shippers moving their cargo between carriers, rather than actual changes in individual carrier reliability. In order to test this, we have calculated what the global reliability would have looked like if the volume distribution across carriers had remained unchanged over the past year. This is illustrated in Figure 2.
We see small deviations from the actual on-time delivery, however those are minor changes.
The overall conclusion becomes that the changes in global on-time delivery reflect actual changes in the carrier delivery.
Comparison to Schedule Reliability
OceanMetrics data indicate containers were delivered on-time in 50% of the cases over the past 13 weeks. How does this compare to carrier performance and how much of this is due to carrier reliability?
Using the carriers within the OceanMetrics data as the baseline, the adjusted global carriers' average schedule reliability is 69% in Q3 2011 according to SeaIntel Maritime Analysis*. If we look purely at vessel on-time arrival, 31 out of 100 containers would have been delivered late. However, based on OceanMetrics data, we know that 50 containers are delivered late. Therefore, an additional 19 containers are late because of non-vessel operations.
Based on this, we can deduce that schedule reliability accounts for 62% of the delayed containers, whereas other factors account for as much as 38% of the late containers. This indicates that a significant portion of the delayed deliveries are unrelated to the vessel operations.
- 62% (31 out of 50) containers are late due to vessel operations
- 38% (19 out of 50) containers are late for other non-vessel operations
Differences Across Carriers
The data tells us that the differences are very large across the individual carriers.
Figure 3 illustrates the highest and lowest on-time delivery statistics over the past 52 weeks. The lines in Figure 3 do not represent any single carrier, but simply the on-time delivery statistics for the highest or lowest performing carrier that particular week.
This data clearly shows that shippers have a wide range of service levels to choose from in the market. Just as some shippers want very high reliability for time sensitive products for example, others might be perfectly content with a low on time delivery performance. What is important is that the shipper not only realizes that the product differentiation is as large as it is, but also that he is able to quantify and measure the difference as part of his decision to choose a particular carrier.
Not All Carriers Match the Global Average
Detailed analysis reveals that whereas some carriers' on time delivery follow the swings in the global average, other carriers show very different development.
We even find that half of the carriers are less than 20% correlated with the global average. In other words, a shipper cannot use the global average as an indication for any individual carrier. It can be used as a measure of the average performance being provided - and the shipper can then look for carriers which provide services above or below this average depending on their specific needs.
With access to OceanMetrics data, the shipper can easily identify how the service levels they are being provided match the overall industry levels.
*SeaIntel Maritime Analysis of global carriers' average schedule reliability is 65% for Q3 2011
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